Gemini + Glassnode: Bitcoin Adoption, Volatility, and Market Cap
A joint report by Gemini and Glassnode, this analysis explores Bitcoin’s 2025 institutional landscape - highlighting the rise of sovereign reserves, the dominance of off-chain trading venues, and the structural shift toward long-term custody and macro adoption.
In March 2025, the U.S. government formally recognized Bitcoin as a sovereign-grade asset, launching the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and triggering a wave of institutional reappraisal. Combined with rising ETF adoption and the dominance of off-chain trading infrastructure, these shifts mark Bitcoin’s deepening role as a strategic macro asset.
The Gemini x Glassnode 2025 Report offers an institutionally-focused analysis of how this transformation is reshaping market structure, volatility, and capital flows, both on- and off-chain. From sovereign holdings to market cap reflexivity, the report equips professional investors with insights into Bitcoin’s evolving global role.
Emerging trends in Bitcoin custody and adoption
As strategic entities increase their presence in Bitcoin markets, new signals of structural maturity have emerged. Here are some of the most important trends we discuss in this 17-page report:
- Over 30% of Bitcoin is held by centralized entities, with a small group of early adopters controlling a disproportionate share across most categories
- Sovereign treasuries play an outsized role, whether through dormant holdings (e.g., the U.S., China) or active DCA strategies (e.g., El Salvador, Bhutan), with growing impact on market psychology and stability
- Off-chain venues dominate volume, with centralized exchanges, ETFs, and derivatives platforms facilitating the majority of trading, driving a new era of institutional market structure
- Volatility has declined across timeframes, with recent cycles defined by more consistent, sustained rallies that appeal to long-term investors
- Each $1 of capital deployed into bitcoin can increase the total bitcoin market cap by up to $25 in the short term, and ~$1.70 over a full cycle, highlighting the reflexive power of institutional inflows.
Read on for an overview of the key themes explored in the report, or download the full version for deeper insights into the trends shaping the role of Bitcoin in 2025.
Sovereign treasuries and market impact
Countries such as El Salvador, Bhutan, and the United States have publicly acknowledged or disclosed holdings of Bitcoin. While modest in scale relative to total supply, these coins are typically held in inactive wallets and show no signs of spending behavior, aligning with patterns seen among long-term holders. Their passive custody reduces liquid supply, subtly reinforces investor confidence, and adds a symbolic layer to Bitcoin’s evolving macro narrative.
Institutional custody dominates the Bitcoin landscape
Over 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held by just 216 centralized entities, including ETFs, exchanges, custodians, and corporate treasuries. These entities play an increasingly influential role in shaping supply dynamics. Our report offers a granular breakdown by category and holdings size.
While ETFs represent the most prominent segment of this group by volume, exchanges continue to function as liquidity hubs, and corporates contribute to longer-term supply consolidation. This concentration highlights a growing institutional presence in Bitcoin markets, reflecting both adoption momentum and the structural centralization emerging within custody and market access layers.
Off-chain markets drive the majority of Bitcoin volume
More than 75% of Bitcoin trading volume now occurs through off-chain venues such as centralized exchanges (CEXs) and ETFs, marking a significant structural shift in how liquidity is accessed and price discovery is established.
This transition away from on-chain settlement toward custodial and institutional platforms reflects the maturation of Bitcoin’s market infrastructure, where execution, access, and regulation are increasingly shaped by traditional financial frameworks.
As highlighted in the report, this off-chain dominance has implications not only for market efficiency and transparency but also for the ways in which capital allocates and interacts with the Bitcoin network itself.
Conclusion: a market in transition
The structural shifts unfolding across the Bitcoin market reflect a maturing asset class shaped increasingly by long-term holders, institutional custodians, and evolving market infrastructure.
Glassnode’s on-chain analytics offer a clear lens into these dynamics, revealing how behavioral signals and settlement trends are driving a new phase of adoption. As Bitcoin continues to integrate into broader financial systems, understanding these underlying shifts is essential for navigating what comes next.
Discover more in the full report
This Gemini x Glassnode report delivers a thorough institutional assessment of Bitcoin’s macro integration and capital reflexivity. Inside, you'll uncover:
- Holdings distribution across 216 key entities and treasuries
- Impact of sovereign wallets and dormant holdings
- The role of ETFs and exchanges in reshaping liquidity
- How $1 in capital can drive $25 in short-term market cap
- The symbolic and structural impact of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Whether you're evaluating crypto for reserve strategy or modeling its macro behavior, this report is designed to support informed institutional decision-making.
Glassnode remains committed to providing the highest quality data and analysis to support institutional investors in the world of digital assets. Contact us for bespoke reports, data services, and more. For more reports on the current trends in the crypto markets, please visit Glassnode Insights.
